Explaining the Facts of Life and statistical modeling
On the boys side, I have tried to educate my readers into the mathematics behind the calculation of 550+ teams into one spreadsheet. The formula is interactive so that if a team you played, and beat, continues to improve, their improvement will reflect on you rating.
I made a statement in the first blog posting that I included the games rated because it impacts the soundness or robustness of the rating. So a team like Incarnate Word, who has a chance to become a state champion again, I rated 18 games and I am fairly confident in their rating. On the other hand, for a team like the 18-8 Schuyler County Lady Rams in Lancaster, MO, I only picked two games at the beginning of their schedule and their rating was not robust. I needed more data (game scores) to plug into the model. I rated them an 81 and, sure enough, @LadyRamsBallers called me on their rating. Somehow the disclaimer that teams with fewer score comparisons were questionable ratings did not deter this coach or supporter from questioning "my facts." The exact comment was
"Where do you get your facts. Even Max Preps has better ratings". Ouch. Even Max Preps? LOL The place where you will find Zalma rated the top team in the entire state of Missouri because they are undefeated in class one.
So, I decided to outline how I get a rating for a team. It took me an hour to recalculate the Lady Rams rating but they moved up from an 81 to 91! And the team they are playing in Districts, Putnam County at a 7-15 won-loss record, dropped from 95 to a 90 rating after the interactive modeling was done. I am sure that @LadyRamsBallers was upset that teams in their district were rated higher than them. And now they are 50th in class three instead of 81st.
I like passion in a coach or supporter. I just don't like spending an hour on each of 550 teams to get the model perfect. Let's see, 550 hours at 50 hours a week is 11 weeks. Yikes, it will be the All-Star game when I get all the ratings perfected. LOL. But just for you, @LadyRamsBallers, I recalculated your rating as an example so that you and Rob Porter and a few other people that want ratings but don't like the quality of an early posting of ratings, will stop bugging me. By next year, I might have all the teams in the proper order, just like the boys. Of course, if I don't rank the Vashon boys 1st in the poll, I hear from them too.
Here's my analysis for the Lady Rams. I wish them luck vs. Putnam County. Someone said, "Don't you just hope that Putnam County beats Schuyler County?" and I said "NO". I want the best team to win. Go Lady Rams!
So to understand the table below, I take the difference in score and the other teams rating and add it to the winning team rating line. After calculating the winning teams opponents, I take the new rating for that team, and subtract the point spread from the winner and give it to the losing teams. Sometimes I weight the rating with multiple entries. Anyway, too much information. The old rating was what I posted this morning and the new rating is what the teams are after an hour of massaging game scores. Some teams moved up and some moved down and I hope that rights the planet earth for @LadyRamsBallers and they can just go out and have fun next week.
I made a statement in the first blog posting that I included the games rated because it impacts the soundness or robustness of the rating. So a team like Incarnate Word, who has a chance to become a state champion again, I rated 18 games and I am fairly confident in their rating. On the other hand, for a team like the 18-8 Schuyler County Lady Rams in Lancaster, MO, I only picked two games at the beginning of their schedule and their rating was not robust. I needed more data (game scores) to plug into the model. I rated them an 81 and, sure enough, @LadyRamsBallers called me on their rating. Somehow the disclaimer that teams with fewer score comparisons were questionable ratings did not deter this coach or supporter from questioning "my facts." The exact comment was
"Where do you get your facts. Even Max Preps has better ratings". Ouch. Even Max Preps? LOL The place where you will find Zalma rated the top team in the entire state of Missouri because they are undefeated in class one.
So, I decided to outline how I get a rating for a team. It took me an hour to recalculate the Lady Rams rating but they moved up from an 81 to 91! And the team they are playing in Districts, Putnam County at a 7-15 won-loss record, dropped from 95 to a 90 rating after the interactive modeling was done. I am sure that @LadyRamsBallers was upset that teams in their district were rated higher than them. And now they are 50th in class three instead of 81st.
I like passion in a coach or supporter. I just don't like spending an hour on each of 550 teams to get the model perfect. Let's see, 550 hours at 50 hours a week is 11 weeks. Yikes, it will be the All-Star game when I get all the ratings perfected. LOL. But just for you, @LadyRamsBallers, I recalculated your rating as an example so that you and Rob Porter and a few other people that want ratings but don't like the quality of an early posting of ratings, will stop bugging me. By next year, I might have all the teams in the proper order, just like the boys. Of course, if I don't rank the Vashon boys 1st in the poll, I hear from them too.
Here's my analysis for the Lady Rams. I wish them luck vs. Putnam County. Someone said, "Don't you just hope that Putnam County beats Schuyler County?" and I said "NO". I want the best team to win. Go Lady Rams!
So to understand the table below, I take the difference in score and the other teams rating and add it to the winning team rating line. After calculating the winning teams opponents, I take the new rating for that team, and subtract the point spread from the winner and give it to the losing teams. Sometimes I weight the rating with multiple entries. Anyway, too much information. The old rating was what I posted this morning and the new rating is what the teams are after an hour of massaging game scores. Some teams moved up and some moved down and I hope that rights the planet earth for @LadyRamsBallers and they can just go out and have fun next week.
| Schuyler County Girls basketball (based on MSHSAA website) | |||||
| Rating | was 81 | New Rating | 91 | ||
| Opponent | Outcome | Score | Old Rating | New Rating | |
| 11/26/2020 | Northeast (Cairo) (16-9) | W | 42 - 39 | 79 | 85 |
| » 12/3 | Brookfield (10-14) | W | 50 - 47 | 73 | 83 |
| » 12/5 | Clark County (16-8) | L | 33 - 45 | 114 | 111 |
| » 12/7 | Milan (15-8) | W | 56 - 45 | 95 | 88 |
| 12/9/2020 | Putnam County (7-15) | W | 44 - 37 | 95 | 90 |
| 12/13/2020 | at Milan (15-8) | W | 38 - 33 | 95 | 87 |
| 12/17/2020 | Scotland County (22-3) | L | 26 - 46 | 105 | 106 |
| 12/20/2020 | at Paris with Faith Walk (13-11) | L | 48 - 64 | 100 | 102 |
| 12/30/2020 | vs Winston (4-17) | W | 49 - 16 | 61 | 59 |
| 1/6/2020 | Marceline (11-12) | W | 51 - 50 | 92 | 91 |
| 1/7/2020 | La Plata (8-16) | W | 49 - 35 | 91 | 84 |
| 1/14/2020 | at North Shelby (14-11) | W | 55 - 49 | 98 | 93 |
| » 1/20 | Marion County (7-15) | W | 40 - 39 | 80 | 85 |
| » 1/25 | North Shelby (14-11) | W | 48 - 33 | 93 | 88 |
| 1/28/2020 | at Scotland County (22-3) | L | 35 - 54 | 106 | 107 |
| 1/31/2020 | at Knox County (7-17) | W | 43 - 39 | 85 | 86 |
| » 2/1 | Scotland County (22-3) | L | 35 - 56 | 107 | 108 |
| » 2/4 | Atlanta (13-7) | W | 55 - 45 | 91 | 86 |
| » 2/7 | Canton (14-10) | L | 42 - 48 | 88 | 86 |
| » 2/8 | North Shelby (14-11) | W | 71 - 50 | 88 | 86 |
| 2/11/2020 | at Harrisburg (8-15) | L | 36 - 53 | 79 | 98 |
| 2/14/2020 | Salisbury (21-3) | L | 46 - 57 | 112 | 106 |
| 2/18/2020 | at Westran (0-19) | W | 60 - 14 | 68 | 58 |
| 2/21/2020 | Fayette (8-15) | W | 63 - 50 | 80 | 79 |
| 2/24/2029 | Class 2 District 6 Tournament | ||||
| » 2/24 | Putnam County (7-15) | 8:15 PM | 95 | 90 | |
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