Facts of life part 2 and looking at the MBCA Girls Poll
One reader asked me how I started the ratings model of girl's high school, so I thought I would go through the process. Along with that explanation, I put ratings to the Girl's Missouri Basketball Coaches Association poll.
You have to start somewhere, so I started with Kirkwood girls and gave them a 120 rating. I rated all of their opponents (up or down depending on the outcome vs Kirkwood). I focused on class 5, 4 and 3 teams initially and then found a few St. Louis area class one and two. Once I had them rated, I compared their opponents to add additional teams to the model. That process allowed me to get most of the teams in St. Louis area rated (to varying degrees) and then I had to find teams from other parts of the state that had played St. Louis teams. Once I had a few teams in Kansas City and Springfield and Bootheel, I could start to rate outstate teams.
When you get to the smaller class schools, it is a little like a treasure hunt, finding teams that you haven't rated that have played teams that you have already rated. I started looking for teams that were in the top ten for the MBCA polls and focused on them first. I found their opponents and continued to build the model.
Sometimes a whole district or league might not have played anyone you have rated. You set them aside for a while. I had that kind of problem with the Lewis & Clark conference. I finally found games with Scotland County (Memphis) and I was able to rate the teams in their conference. Sometimes I rate just a few games and then move on to higher rated teams around the state that are on the MBCA poll (fact of life #2). Rating a team on a couple of games gives me an approximate rating. That means that a team like Schuyler County gets a rating below teams they beat. I got a complaint and I recalculated the ratings so that it matched their record, but I would need a lot of time to polish the ratings on teams that might be in the lower half of their class. The focus continues to be on highly rated teams. It is a work in progress and I have a lot more to do to get it right.
Given that explanation, I am throwing out my first ratings for the MBCA girl's polls. They are imperfect but so are coaches ratings.
I will try to fine-tune these, just like I did with the boys. Maybe I will get it right by state quarterfinals. If you don't like my ratings, keep it to yourself for a few weeks. I will eventually get it right (for a few people anyway).
Enjoy.
Based upon
You have to start somewhere, so I started with Kirkwood girls and gave them a 120 rating. I rated all of their opponents (up or down depending on the outcome vs Kirkwood). I focused on class 5, 4 and 3 teams initially and then found a few St. Louis area class one and two. Once I had them rated, I compared their opponents to add additional teams to the model. That process allowed me to get most of the teams in St. Louis area rated (to varying degrees) and then I had to find teams from other parts of the state that had played St. Louis teams. Once I had a few teams in Kansas City and Springfield and Bootheel, I could start to rate outstate teams.
When you get to the smaller class schools, it is a little like a treasure hunt, finding teams that you haven't rated that have played teams that you have already rated. I started looking for teams that were in the top ten for the MBCA polls and focused on them first. I found their opponents and continued to build the model.
Sometimes a whole district or league might not have played anyone you have rated. You set them aside for a while. I had that kind of problem with the Lewis & Clark conference. I finally found games with Scotland County (Memphis) and I was able to rate the teams in their conference. Sometimes I rate just a few games and then move on to higher rated teams around the state that are on the MBCA poll (fact of life #2). Rating a team on a couple of games gives me an approximate rating. That means that a team like Schuyler County gets a rating below teams they beat. I got a complaint and I recalculated the ratings so that it matched their record, but I would need a lot of time to polish the ratings on teams that might be in the lower half of their class. The focus continues to be on highly rated teams. It is a work in progress and I have a lot more to do to get it right.
Given that explanation, I am throwing out my first ratings for the MBCA girl's polls. They are imperfect but so are coaches ratings.
I will try to fine-tune these, just like I did with the boys. Maybe I will get it right by state quarterfinals. If you don't like my ratings, keep it to yourself for a few weeks. I will eventually get it right (for a few people anyway).
Enjoy.
Based upon
2019-2020
MBCA Girls' Basketball Poll #9
(Release 2/20)
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from Bill
Gunn • MoSports
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| MOSports.com | |
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2019-2020 Girls'
Basketball Poll #9 (Release 2/20)
|
|
| The MBCA Basketball poll is selected by a panel of coaches representing each of the 8 MBCA districts and each of the five Missouri basketball classes. | |
| Class 1 | My Rating |
| 1 Community | 117.6 |
| 2 Walnut Grove | 115.4 |
| 3 South Iron | 123.5 |
| 4 Norborne | 117.6 |
| 5 Leeton | 110.5 |
| 6 Climax Springs | 96.1 |
| 7 Wheatland | 117.5 |
| 8 Green City | 109.7 |
| 9 Eminence | 102.6 |
| 10 Stanberry | 110.4 |
| Others receiving votes: | |
| Montrose | 93.3 |
| Platte Valley | 102.2 |
| Class 2 | |
| 1 Hartville | 120.9 |
| 2 East Buchanan | 121.9 |
| 3 Skyline | 111.9 |
| 4 Ellington | 116.0 |
| 5 Blue Eye | 111.7 |
| 6 Miller | 116.8 |
| 7 Wellington-Napoleon | 109.2 |
| 8 Oran | 118.3 |
| 9 Tarkio w/Fairfax | 114.3 |
| 10 Salisbury | 105.7 |
| Others receiving votes: | |
| Neelyville | 113.9 |
| Richland | 77.0 |
| Tipton | 106.5 |
| Eugene | 98.0 |
| Class 3 | |
| 1 Whitfield | 132.2 |
| 2 Strafford | 134.3 |
| 3 California | 118.9 |
| 4 Palmyra | 121.3 |
| 5 South Callaway | 117.5 |
| 6 Southern Boone | 117.5 |
| 7 Maryville | 121.6 |
| 8 Macon | 123.1 |
| 9 Eldorado Springs | 116.1 |
| 10 Licking | 121.5 |
| Others receiving votes: | |
| St. James | 121.2 |
| Clever | 113.5 |
| Lutheran St. Charles | 126.6 |
| Miller Career Academy | 128.4 |
| Mt. Vernon | 106.5 |
| Class 4 | |
| 1 Incarnate Word Academy | 143.7 |
| 2 West Plains | 135.7 |
| 3 Carl Junction | 135.8 |
| 4 Kearney | 126.1 |
| 5 Rolla | 133.5 |
| 6 Nevada | 122.4 |
| 7 Ladue | 136.5 |
| 8 Sullivan | 142.2 |
| 9 Ste. Genevieve | 123.2 |
| 10 Rockwood Summit | 134.0 |
| Others receiving votes: | |
| Booneville | 114.8 |
| Parkway North | 133.9 |
| Camdenton | 107.3 |
| Park Hills Central | 123.4 |
| Westminster Academy | 134.5 |
| Class 5 | |
| 1 Liberty | 138.9 |
| 2 Jefferson City | 139.4 |
| 3 Rock Bridge | 147.2 |
| 4 Kirkwood | 133.4 |
| 5 Francis Howell Central | 137.4 |
| 6 Ozark | 134.7 |
| 7 Blue Springs | 132.6 |
| 8 Lee's Summit West | 140.0 |
| 9 Blue Spring South | 127.8 |
| 10 Staley | 125.3 |
| Others receiving votes: | |
| Truman | 124.6 |
| North Kansas City | 120.6 |
| Liberty North | 128.2 |
| MBCA Member Coaches who wish to participate in the voting process may e-mail MBCA Poll Chair, Adam Thornhill, polls@mobca.org |
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